The evidence
Glassnode’s January 14, 2026 report described a slower decline in Bitcoin supply held by longer term holders after heavy distribution during late 2025. Its cohort measure balances spending against coins passing an approximately 155 day age threshold. These are observations from January, not current wallet balances.
The distinction matters because a coin can enter an older cohort while remaining in the same wallet. No new market purchase is required for that classification change.
Source: Glassnode research, January 14, 2026.
FOLITIC analysis
A useful reading separates three processes: new purchases, continued holding and spending. A cohort balance combines at least the latter two. Treating its daily change as a direct cash flow can exaggerate both institutional demand and retail capitulation.
Consider a hypothetical group of coins acquired around the same period. If those coins remain untouched, many can cross the age boundary together. The resulting increase in the older cohort reflects time passing, even if current trading demand is weak.
Conversely, a holder may move coins to a new custody arrangement without changing their economic exposure. Analysts should check the methodology for adjustments before describing a spending event as an exit.
What to watch
Compare cohort supply with spending intensity, realized profit measures and verified market flows over the same dates. A dated chart is a starting point for analysis, not a timeless support level or a list of identified investors.
Image: Illustrative photograph of a physical Bitcoin coin beside a laptop. Credit: Shixart1985 via Wikimedia Commons. Image license: CC BY 2.0. Displayed with a responsive crop. This illustrative image does not depict the reported transaction.
