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How do you read an economic data release?

Start with the indicator name, country, reference period, release date and unit. Then check whether the figure is adjusted for inflation or seasonal patterns. August data released in September describes August activity. An index of 120 does not mean growth of 120%. A quarterly flow measures activity during that quarter, while a stock measures an amount at a particular date. Missing or unavailable figures are not zero.

Compare like with like

Monthly growth (MoM) compares consecutive months. Yearly growth (YoY) compares a month with the same month a year earlier. Quarterly growth (QoQ) compares consecutive quarters. A quarterly annualized rate compounds a quarter’s pace over four quarters. A 1% quarterly gain corresponds to (1.01^4 minus 1)×100 = 4.06% annualized, not a prediction that the year will actually grow by 4.06%. Growth in the annual average and growth from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of the next also differ.

Seasonality and base effects

Seasonal adjustment estimates recurring calendar related patterns. It does not eliminate uncertainty or every unusual event. Read the agency’s method and revision policy. Annual inflation can fall because the comparison month a year earlier was unusually high, even while current prices continue rising. Examine recent monthly momentum as well as the annual rate.

Actual, expected and previous

An economic calendar often shows actual, consensus and previous values. Consensus is a forecast from a specified survey, not an official target. Check whether “previous” has been revised. A release can exceed expectations yet still signal weaker activity than the preceding period. Market reactions also depend on positioning and policy expectations, so surprise alone is not a reliable trading rule.

A worked release note

Illustrative industrial output rises 0.4% in a month versus a 0.2% consensus. The prior month is revised from +0.3% to minus 0.1%. Write: “The new month exceeded this survey’s forecast by 0.2 percentage points, while the previous level was weaker than first reported.” Then inspect the revised level path, industry breadth and source notes. Do not add these rates mechanically and call the result a precise change in output.

Your seven point release template

  1. Source and exact series.
  2. Release date and reference period.
  3. Value, units and seasonal basis.
  4. Comparable prior values and revisions.
  5. Expectation and named provider, if available.
  6. Components and competing explanations.
  7. What the release changes and what remains unknown.
Open the FOLITIC Economic Calendar to practice, then verify the release with the original statistical agency.

Sources and further reading

Examples use hypothetical figures unless stated otherwise. Updated 8 October 2026.